Maize

Maize is South Africa’s second-largest field crop after sugarcane. Article 1 records a gross value of production that topped R20 billion in 2007/08, with roughly 60% of output going to human consumption and the balance feeding livestock, and with the Free State, Mpumalanga and North West producing around 83% of the crop on the 2012/13 baseline. It is grown overwhelmingly on dryland, which ties output directly to summer rainfall.

The region shares the same summer-rainfall maize belt. Zimbabwe harvested 2,824,110 tonnes from 1,928,505 hectares in 2025/26 according to the Cabinet briefing of June 2026, the highest in its history, although ZimStat’s post-harvest survey for the previous season recorded 1,819,819 tonnes against an in-season projection of 2.3 million, a reminder that early estimates run high. Zambia projected 4.9 million tonnes of maize grain for 2025/26, its largest crop on record. Botswana and Namibia are structural importers: Botswana’s local production averages under 10,000 tonnes a year against demand above 100,000 tonnes, and Namibia’s formal white maize production was 69,541 tonnes in 2025, covering 31% of supply.

Article 3 adds the strategic fork that shapes every maize plan: white maize is food, sold to millers for meal; yellow maize is feed, sold to the poultry, pork and dairy chains. They grow the same way and lead different economic lives.

Article 1 explains how South Africa escaped the regional cycle of bumper harvest followed by export ban: it let a market find the price. Maize trades on SAFEX, where a farmer can sell forward and hedge. North of the Limpopo the price is largely announced. Zimbabwe’s GMB set US$364.75 a tonne for 2025/26, down from US$376.48 the season before and US$390 in 2023/24. Zambia’s FRA set a 2026 floor of K6.94 a kilogram, K347 a 50kg bag, and aimed to buy at least 500,000 tonnes. Namibia’s NAB sets a white maize floor that follows the SAFEX price fortnightly, with local white maize averaging N$6,385 a tonne in 2025 against N$5,040 for imports. Botswana’s BAMB prices at import parity with South Africa.

Seasonality follows the harvest. Prices are lowest from May to July when everyone sells and rise toward the end of the year as stocks are drawn down. The farmer who can store and wait often earns more than the farmer who sells at harvest, provided the storage cost and the cost of waiting for the money are less than the price gain. T-M1-04 runs exactly that comparison.

Maize moves across the region according to who had rain. South Africa exports in surplus years and imports in drought years. Zimbabwe has been the largest buyer of South African maize in recent seasons. Zambia’s record 2025/26 crop left an expected commercial export surplus, with the DRC, Zimbabwe and Malawi its natural markets. Namibia imported 155,218 tonnes of white maize in 2025 and Botswana imports most of its needs.

For the farmer, trade flows set the ceiling and the floor on local prices. In a deficit market the price tends toward import parity, the cost of bringing maize in from South Africa. In a surplus market it falls toward export parity, the price a buyer abroad will pay less the cost of getting it there. Governments in the region respond to surpluses and shortages with export bans and import permits, which is why a maize plan must name the policy risk alongside the weather risk.

The chain runs from seed and fertiliser suppliers through the farmer to the buyer: a marketing board or reserve agency, a trader, a miller or a feed manufacturer. Article 2 shows that the funnel narrows sharply at milling: many thousands of farmers grow maize but a handful of large millers turn it into the meal families buy, and that is where pricing power concentrates. Article 68 shows the other branch: cheap, reliable maize is the foundation of every poultry and pork industry, because feed is the largest cost in producing meat.

For a small farmer the strongest positions in the chain are rarely in bulk grain. They are in seed maize grown under contract to a seed company, in green mealies sold fresh to urban markets at a premium, in feed supplied directly to nearby poultry and pig producers, and in small-scale hammer milling that sells meal locally and keeps the bran as feed.

Maize is a lightly certified crop, but the barriers are real. Buyers grade on moisture, foreign matter, broken kernels and disease, and pay less for anything below grade. Aflatoxin, a toxin produced by moulds in poorly dried grain, can make a load unsaleable. Genetically modified maize is grown commercially in South Africa, while Zambia and Zimbabwe have banned it, so seed choice is also a market-access choice. Cross-border maize needs permits and phytosanitary certificates, and export bans can close a border overnight. Namibia closes its border to white maize imports during its local marketing season, which protects its producers until the local crop is sold.

Real minimum capital. Zimbabwe’s commercial gross margin guide puts the cost of growing a hectare of maize at about US$1,200 to US$1,300 from cultivation to harvest, before transport and irrigation. At the GMB price of US$364.75 a tonne, that needs roughly 3.3 to 3.6 tonnes a hectare simply to break even, well above the national average yield. On two hectares the gross income at a good yield of five tonnes a hectare is about US$3,650, which leaves a small margin and no return on the land. Bulk maize on a small plot does not beat the land’s opportunity cost from Module C1.

Input choke points. Certified seed and fertiliser must be in hand before the first rains, which means cash or credit three to five months before any income. Late planting cuts yield. Tillage must be hired in time or done by hand.

Offtake options. The marketing board or reserve agency is the buyer of last resort; private millers and feed manufacturers may pay faster; seed companies contract growers for seed maize at a premium; urban traders buy green mealies.

Who to call. In Zimbabwe, the GMB for grain and its input swap, and seed companies for seed-maize contracts. In Zambia, the FRA and private millers. In Botswana, BAMB for contract buying. In Namibia, the NAB and the registered millers. In South Africa, a grain trader or cooperative and SAFEX prices as the benchmark.

The verdict for a small holding. Grow maize on a small plot only as seed maize under contract, as green mealies for a premium fresh market, or as feed for the student’s own poultry or pigs. As a bulk commodity, maize needs scale the small farm does not have.

Maize is planted with the first good rains, from October to December, and grows for about 120 to 150 days to maturity depending on the variety. It then dries in the field before it can be harvested and stored, usually from April to June. A buyer such as a marketing board or miller may pay weeks after delivery. Seed, fertiliser and land preparation are paid for at the start, so the money is out for most of the year before any comes back.

The maize kernel is three products in one. The endosperm, most of the kernel, is starch: the miller turns it into super and special meal, samp and maize rice. The germ carries the oil and goes to oil and feed. The bran, the outer skin, goes to animal feed. The stalks and leaves left in the field, the stover, are feed for cattle in winter. A farmer who sells grain sells all three at one price; the miller earns by separating them.

In South Africa maize is graded by class and grade: white maize as WM1, WM2 and WM3, yellow maize as YM1, YM2 and YM3, with anything below falling to class other. The grade is set at the silo by a registered grader, who measures defective and diseased kernels, foreign matter, kernels of the other colour and pinked kernels. Moisture above the limit is dried at the farmer's cost or penalised. Marketing boards in the local markets grade the same way under their own standards. A load that is cleaned and dried before delivery earns the full price; one that is downgraded loses money the farmer has already spent.

Origin and IP. Hybrid and genetically modified seed is protected by the seed company: you buy it new each season under licence, and you may not save and sell it.

Maize is lost in the field to a handful of pests and diseases, and in the store to insects and moulds. You do not need to diagnose them; you need a scouting routine and an agronomist on call. This is the owner's checklist, not the science: enough to protect the investment and supervise the expert.

• Fall armyworm. Scout weekly from emergence; spray when the threshold is reached.
• Stalk borer. Use treated seed or tolerant varieties and scout early.
• Maize streak virus and grey leaf spot. Plant tolerant varieties suited to your area.
• Ear rots and mycotoxins. Harvest dry and store dry; mouldy grain is rejected or downgraded.
• Weevils and larger grain borer. Clean, treated storage and regular checks.

When to call the expert. Call the agronomist or extension officer at the first sign of armyworm damage, unusual yellowing or patchy growth.

These are the specialists a maize business needs as it grows. You do not need to do their work; you need to know who they are, when to bring them in and what to expect from them. Module C11 teaches how to recruit, contract and manage them.

Run T-M1-02 Input Plan per Hectare and T-M1-03 Yield-to-Income Calculator for the student’s own hectares at three yields - poor, average and good - and at the price in the student’s market. Enter the result in T-M1-01 Enterprise Budget and compare the gross margin with the land’s lease value from C1. Test storage against selling at harvest in T-M1-04, and compare the price received with the other markets in T-M1-05. Record which position in the maize chain the venture will take.

Calculators: T-M1-01 Enterprise Budget, T-M1-02 Input Plan per Hectare, T-M1-03 Yield-to-Income Calculator, T-M1-04 Storage versus Sell-at-Harvest, T-M1-05 Market Price Comparator.

Library sources: LIB-A001, LIB-A002, LIB-A003, LIB-A068; LIB-P-Maize, LIB-P-Maize-IP, LIB-P-FieldCrops-IP; LIB-C-ZW-Maize, LIB-C-ZM-Maize, LIB-C-BW-Maize, LIB-C-NA-Maize.